A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
